tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-270848142012-02-01T01:28:05.147-08:00An engineer/inventor stuggling to understand where the world is headed. I'm hopeful my ideas contribute to the solar industry.Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00989098653955627380noreply@blogger.comBlogger2751100tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27084814.post-51367288051665951002012-01-26T12:36:00.000-08:002012-01-26T15:40:56.284-08:00

Looking back at 2011, I was exceedingly wrong about the price solar panels would sell for, and suffered massive investment loses (as anyone that owned solar stocks in 2011 is sure to have done). My only slender consolation is that I was nearly right (I guessed 25GW) about the volume of solar panels installed...after the prices dropped. The latest reports are that ~27GW were installed worldwide in

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00989098653955627380noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27084814.post-28353229439255622622011-11-22T00:55:00.000-08:002011-11-22T00:58:56.888-08:00

If you saw last nights news, you might have seen a 15s clip of the UC Davis students sitting on the sidewalk get drenched in peperspray. If you want to see what transpired before and after (and if you have time for an ~8 minute clip) I'd suggest watching either of the videos posted here:http://occupydavis.org/I can't believe that at least 20 of UC Davis's finest doughnut patrol in full riot gear

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00989098653955627380noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27084814.post-72610616341677601812011-11-14T11:29:00.000-08:002011-11-14T12:12:27.472-08:00

I've nearly completed the second prototype for 3D Solar's V-module. Going forward I plan to ship the prototype to a solar test facility for performance verification. This newest module includes: open-in-back aluminum frame design (previous module was enclosed on all sides)modern 6" square full cells, (the prior one used 5" half-moon cells) high reflectivity thin aluminum mirrors tempered glass

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00989098653955627380noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27084814.post-27892445341604356262011-09-13T15:06:00.000-07:002011-09-13T15:22:38.335-07:00

I clearly picked the wrong 6months to be invested in solar. The news has been nonstop terrible since March. LDk now sells for $5/sh and JKS is just above $10/sh.Pricing for solar panels fell from $1.85/W in Q4 2010 to $1.65/W in Q1 to $1.35/W in Q2 and is now around $1.20/W & hopefully stabilizing.While the cost of the most important inputs into solar panels (cells, wafers, silicon) has also

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00989098653955627380noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27084814.post-24889992041633496222011-08-08T11:03:00.001-07:002011-08-08T11:16:29.601-07:00

The share prices of solar stocks has completely disconnected from reality. Maybe the world is falling apart and economics/fundamentals no longer matter. In case life goes on and rationality returns, solar stocks will rocket higher in the fall. JKS and LDK are two that I follow (and have undergone massive sell offs in just a few days) which are looking absurdly oversold and ready for a bounce

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00989098653955627380noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27084814.post-75409117065877939312011-08-03T12:13:00.000-07:002011-08-03T12:19:48.604-07:00

Today is the three month anniversary of my buying shares in Jinko Solar (JKS). Unfortunately panel prices fell further and faster than I expected. So while I wish I had waited a bit to make the purchase--the shares currently trade for $21.5, down ~20%--I am glad that I sold my SPWRB position when I did, as that has fallen by even more than JKS. Besides JKS--the company--by all accounts is

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00989098653955627380noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27084814.post-81272459303028217502011-07-06T10:02:00.000-07:002011-07-06T13:18:57.355-07:00

The last 3 months have been an awful "year" to be invested in solar. The price of solar panels has fallen 25-30% since April. (May was particularly rough.) And the stock prices of many solar panel manufacturers have collapsed (along with their p/e multiples). The good news is that demand finally appears to be picking up and panel prices are stabilizing in the 1 euro/watt range ($1.40/W). My guess

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00989098653955627380noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27084814.post-28305242597089291812011-06-03T11:43:00.000-07:002011-06-03T13:27:02.148-07:00

Solar stocks in general, and chinese solar stocks in particular appear to be excellent values. Two of my favorites on a valuation basis are JKS and LDK (although almost any chinese solar looks cheap).Both are selling at a P/E of 3 based on trailing earnings. LDK is scheduled to report earnings on Monday June 7 after the bell. Estimates are for ~85cents/ADR which would bring the TTM P/E well under

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00989098653955627380noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27084814.post-45024427030050541112011-05-03T09:34:00.000-07:002011-05-03T10:32:26.110-07:00

I first wrote about Jinko Solar just over two months ago. At the time, JKS (a small cap Chinese solar panel manufacturer) was trading near $30/sh and had a P/E of 4.5 after posting phenomenal earnings.JKS reported extraordinarily good results again yesterday. Earnings were $2.1/sh (beating estimates by $0.57/sh and quadrupling the year ago earnings in what is traditionally a slow quarter for

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00989098653955627380noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27084814.post-25844749607351984362011-04-09T14:20:00.000-07:002011-04-09T15:56:32.723-07:00

While most sane people would probably say no...if you live in Chicago (like me) you actually say YES! I am talking about the annual $ value of the wasted energy from our street lights. Chicago has ~250,000 street lights, most are sodium vapor (yellow street lights) HED lights that send light basically in every direction. While the point of street lights is to light the street, the most common

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00989098653955627380noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27084814.post-510480406250854062011-03-22T11:36:00.000-07:002011-03-22T13:12:12.558-07:00

Sometime during the weekend the mainstream broadcast media cut back on coverage of the "crippled nuclear plant". I guess 10 days of coverage was really stretching their attention spans. And helpfully the UN decided to bomb Libya giving the cameras something else to focus on. Plus getting "new and useful" information about what is going on at Fukushima is about as informative as a parent

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00989098653955627380noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27084814.post-86634709459131087542011-03-15T05:27:00.000-07:002011-03-15T06:22:28.323-07:00

I've been riveted to my TV & computer since Friday, trying to comprehend the devestation of a 9.0 earthquake (upgraded from 8.9), + an 8m tsunami, + a desperate situation when nuclear cooling systems failed at a power plant in Fukushima. Whenever you see such utter devastation and human tradgedy and suffering on a national scale it is truely heartbreaking. I am so so saddened by the loss..And

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00989098653955627380noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27084814.post-31843141483761221332011-02-28T20:19:00.000-08:002011-03-01T00:00:37.665-08:00

Usually stocks that crush earnings and are growing revenues by 100%+ year over year are rewarded with higher than market multiples of P/E. But then I guess there is nothing usual about the solar industry these days. One stock--ticker JKS--reported earnings this morning that beat estimates by $0.80 for the quarter, and it sold off over 3.5% by the end of trading. Well of course you say, it

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00989098653955627380noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27084814.post-61152627445036006672011-01-28T13:58:00.000-08:002011-01-28T15:43:52.578-08:00

I've been an investor in WFR for about 2.5 long suffering years. The stock closed today at $11/sh (52 wk range is ~$9-$17).MEMC Electronics reports earnings Tuesday Feb 1, and I'm nearly certain that Q4 will be a very strong quarter. Revenue and earnings will be up substantially from prior quarters. Consensus estimates predict 80% q on q revenue increase from ~$500M to ~$900M largely due to

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00989098653955627380noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27084814.post-19382796815180309702010-12-22T17:12:00.000-08:002010-12-22T17:18:09.906-08:00

While we will not have the all the numbers for 2010 until about March 2011, let us assume that in 2010 the solar industry will install 15GW at an average cost of $5.50/watt. This compares with 7.5GW at $6.50/watt in 2009, and 5GW at $7.50/watt in 2008. (Rough round figures, maybe a little on the high side.) Of that $5.50/watt about $2 pays for the panel and $3.5 everything else. Solar

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00989098653955627380noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27084814.post-60141426338523005172010-12-07T12:33:00.000-08:002010-12-07T13:09:52.380-08:00

Seeing President Obama capitulate to Republicans and extend the Bush tax cuts for millionaires and billionaires is profoundly upsetting/depressing. He campaigned against EXACTLY THIS! The first strike was escalating the war in Afghanistan. And extending the Bush tax cuts for the wealthy is strike two. One more strike and I will not volunteer to help with Obama's re-election. I predict that the

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00989098653955627380noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27084814.post-47743323348278284782010-11-22T11:02:00.000-08:002010-11-22T12:50:40.605-08:00

Normally investors in a fast growing sector like solar need to be careful of valuations becoming stretched. P/Es in fast growing sectors will sometimes reach 2-3 times the market average.Oddly for a market where q1 2010 opened with fears of oversupply and a resulting price war, demand exceeded expectations (100% year over year growth), prices remained stable and a "goldilocks" market ensued in

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00989098653955627380noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27084814.post-83113475537930402432010-11-20T14:33:00.000-08:002010-11-20T15:03:59.553-08:00

Here are a few high level observations about the solar market in recent years and some near term projections (in italics):Solar panel prices50% drop in panel price led to a 200% increase in demand (with 1 yr time lag)25% drop in panel price should lead to a 100% increase in demand the following year 12.5% drop in price should lead to a 50% increase in demand the following yearInstalled prices15%

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00989098653955627380noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27084814.post-71889628833049861932010-11-10T08:16:00.000-08:002010-11-10T08:45:53.056-08:00

The solar sector has recovered from a nasty first half of 2010, with many shares up 30% from the lows of the year. But the sector is still getting no respect--even as some companies post very impressive numbers. I continue to like SPWR and MEMC as I believe analysts/investors are not giving them credit for their power plant construction businesses. At $13.8/sh and $12.60/sh respectively,

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00989098653955627380noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27084814.post-91260763801512669402010-11-05T11:09:00.000-07:002010-11-05T11:14:29.190-07:00

I must say, this new solar keyboard offers a nifty combination of practicality and cool. I'm thinking that should be my next keyboard. Kuddos to Logitech for creating it, and hat tip to solartodayblog for tracking it down.Now, I just need a solar mouse...

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00989098653955627380noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27084814.post-89911034342973829612010-11-03T11:20:00.000-07:002010-11-03T12:51:16.012-07:00

The day after an election is always a little surreal. If your side wins you feel a wonderful sense of elation and possibility; if your side loses you are left shaking your head, wondering how the majority of voters could have fallen for the other side's BS.While the actual result may not be a big surprise (the polls and pundits all seemed to fairly accurately predict the outcome) and the economy

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00989098653955627380noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27084814.post-48894578714431808672010-08-28T11:33:00.000-07:002010-08-28T13:00:30.486-07:00

One of my favorite aspects of solar technology is that the more we make/use/buy the cheaper it gets. There are several reasons for this from the trivial--buying any product in bulk is cheaper than buying one, two or three at a time--to the more profound like the experience curve: you get better at making any widget the more widgets you make. Also as the solar industry grows it continues to

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00989098653955627380noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27084814.post-49094679845036777772010-08-17T10:38:00.000-07:002010-08-17T11:03:22.509-07:00

Solar stocks are having a terrible year even as installations of solar go through the roof!Most market analysts are expecing at least 50% more solar to be installed in 2010 than in 2009. Prices for panels have so far held surprising steady after last year's 40-50% plunge. Now that panel manufacturers are running at high capacity, they are making money again.Solar stocks are almost universally

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00989098653955627380noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27084814.post-76269057485274523002010-07-31T13:56:00.000-07:002010-07-31T14:54:11.861-07:00

Here is an idea that the Department of Energy (or NREL) should develop to assist mainstream consumers adopt solar. In keeping with the Energy Star program this could be called the "Solar Star" rating. Please note: I have no idea if this is being (or has already been) tried, it just seems like it would be helpful.The US solar industry would benefit from establishing a standard solar day (or

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00989098653955627380noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27084814.post-85815173876170257082010-07-09T11:05:00.000-07:002010-07-09T12:20:19.031-07:00

I recently read about the trouble the US military is having delivering power/electricity to Afghanistan. This is similar to difficulty the military had (continues to have?) in Iraq.It made me think that we should--at least as an experiment--give the Afghanis solar panels, and let them install the panels. Some people may think this is crazy, but let me explain.We are spending over a hundred

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00989098653955627380noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27084814.post-3473895374096537542010-06-08T14:05:00.000-07:002010-06-08T14:29:14.295-07:00

BP OTTER--a.k.a. "Tony" gives BP the finger; then begs for his life back.More shots of wildcritters whose only crime was to live too close to BP's oilruption are here.So sad...it is our voracious demand for oil that causes BP to drill risky wells in the Gulf. As a society we NEED TO DO BETTER.

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00989098653955627380noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27084814.post-6212794537514324182010-06-04T10:17:00.000-07:002010-06-04T11:14:38.892-07:00

The media in this country is failing to show us what is really happening in the Gulf.Here is a video made almost 1 month ago by John Wathen and the Waterkeeper Alliance--it shows clearly that even a month ago this was a disaster of epic proportions!The government is failing us too...we need to get some surveillance drones up over the gulf recording the oil slick all day--hell throw 1000 (or

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00989098653955627380noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27084814.post-55570406585535143442010-06-02T11:27:00.000-07:002010-06-02T12:05:56.871-07:00

I'm really excited about what I am learning about Biochar. So far I know only the very basics--but it all sounds incredibly promising!Biochar is basically charcoal that is buried in your field/garden to improve yields. If you make it properly, up to 50% of the carbon remains in the biochar after "burning" (i.e. generating energy) in a low oxygen environment. 1) Biochar removes carbon from the

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00989098653955627380noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27084814.post-52370251049381607132010-05-27T20:05:00.000-07:002010-05-27T20:43:34.339-07:00

I have a simple idea that can reduce the installed cost of solar.Pre-assemble the solar panels into multi-panel blocks before shipping to the customer roof. Make (and test) all the electrical and physical connections between the each of the panels in the block at the factory or warehouse. This will reduce the number of connections the installation team needs to make on the roof which will allow a

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00989098653955627380noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27084814.post-28079377215271295352010-05-26T21:18:00.001-07:002010-05-26T21:59:45.007-07:00

I feel compelled to follow up on my post on SPWRB from two weeks ago.At that time I argued that the shares represented an excellent value. Now the shares are trading at $9.60/share--down 20% in just two weeks, with no change in fundamentals, I have to say they represent an extraordinary value. The P/E on projected 2010 earnings is now 6.7; on 2011 the P/E is 4.5.The P/S on projected 2010 sales

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00989098653955627380noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27084814.post-8945722226179301152010-05-15T00:16:00.000-07:002010-05-15T00:45:23.765-07:00

The BP "spill" a.k.a. the gulf oil gusher of 2010, is going from what initially sounded like a mess with a tragic accidental loss of eleven lives (@1000 barrels/day),to a national environmental disaster (@5000 barrels/day)to what could turn into a(n international) catastrophe that will make the Exxon Valdez look like a kindergarden prank (@50,000 barrels/day? 100,000 barrels/day? 200,000 barrels

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00989098653955627380noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27084814.post-50693093595172437272010-05-14T10:45:00.000-07:002010-05-14T11:49:40.132-07:00

As a follow-up to last week's post on solar stocks, I just have to comment on Sunpower.In the last week alone the SPWRB shares have sold off an additional $2 (~18%) and now trade under $11.50/share. At this price SPWRB looks like "a sure thing" investment if your investment horizon is 1 year or longer. The P/E on 2010 earnings is ~8 and the P/E on 2011 is ~5.5. The Price to Sales is now under 1

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00989098653955627380noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27084814.post-63824906521663142822010-05-07T11:06:00.000-07:002010-05-07T12:58:14.783-07:00

2010 has not been kind to investors in US solar stocks--and it has been a disaster for Sunpower shareholders!Frustratingly Sunpower (SPWRA & SPWRB) stock price has performed abysmally so far this year, down almost 50%, with 35% of that hitting in the past 6 weeks alone. All US solar stocks are feeling the heat of the Chinese solar competition which is hurting margins. Sunpower and First Solar (

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00989098653955627380noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27084814.post-10160890614488737342010-05-07T08:59:00.000-07:002010-05-07T11:03:48.868-07:00

According to the European PV authority's market outlook, the amount of solar installed worldwide more than doubled over the past two years to reach 23 Gigawatts in 2009. That is especially remarkable when you realize that annual capacity installations only topped 1GW/yr in 2004. Even more eye-catching, the europeans are projecting installed worldwide capacity to grow by 50GW or 100GW by 2014.

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00989098653955627380noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27084814.post-69984209145446549842010-05-01T10:26:00.000-07:002010-05-01T14:08:11.242-07:00

I believe that April 2010 is a perfect illustraion of all that is wrong with our national energy policy which I can only describe as "produce more at any cost".April started with President Obama opening up "vast" new areas for offshore drilling (actually that was the tail end of March), in order to entice a few Republicans into supporting a climate bill. This legislation looks to be in serious

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00989098653955627380noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27084814.post-22279738233774616892010-04-26T23:05:00.000-07:002010-04-26T23:46:09.627-07:00

I think "Leave your sleep" has all the hallmarks of a brilliant project by Natalie Merchant, who is a musical artist I very much enjoy.Several years ago, maybe 7ish?, there was a book published called Poetry Speaks, which had a broad selection of audio recordings of famous poetry read by the poets themselves. It was a fun way to experience poetry--certainly more varied than hearing myself read

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00989098653955627380noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27084814.post-36829007591066836792010-04-16T12:45:00.000-07:002010-04-16T13:02:04.934-07:00

So there have been a couple good headlines about solar in recent days. Two caught my eye in particular. US grid tied PV grows 38% in 2009-- this is great news (especially given the god-awful economy in general in 2009), with a bottom line that the US installed 481 MW of new PV in 2009. California lead the country with about 46% of that.but then I saw this:Germany installed 3.8 GW of PV in 2009-

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00989098653955627380noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27084814.post-35179243451605947282010-04-06T18:14:00.000-07:002010-04-06T18:16:49.099-07:00

If you are interested in reducing pollution from coal burning plants in Chicago please come to an event on April 13th. There is going to be a press conference at 10am on the 2nd floor of City Hall--and the coalition wants to gather as many supporters as possible. Even a few extra people will make a difference.I just learned about this earlier in the week and think the coalition is taking exactly

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00989098653955627380noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27084814.post-31895288214729228562010-03-27T09:31:00.000-07:002010-03-27T09:54:05.369-07:00

As part of the process of becoming more aware of how our consumption can hurt us, it is usually good to get back to basics. The following is a list of common fruits and vegitables with a scoring based on the number and frequency of finding pesticides on them.This is not a measure of the toxicity of the pesticide, just the presense of the pesticide (some of the items at the top of the list can

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00989098653955627380noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27084814.post-16233075996921447952010-03-22T14:33:00.000-07:002010-03-22T16:11:15.951-07:00

I saw an interview with the author of "The Story of Stuff" on the Colbert Report a couple weeks ago. The interview was ~5 minutes long, but the author (Annie Leonard) did such a good job summarizing the fix we are all in, that I ran out and bought the book. Apparently Leonard made a 20 minute film (including line drawn animation) and released it on the web a couple years ago leading to ~10

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00989098653955627380noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27084814.post-87000498840754846522010-03-22T10:40:00.000-07:002010-03-22T10:57:41.809-07:00

I think Ezra Klien has a marvelous post today at the Washington Post (actually he has several on the subject) "How big is it really" about the relative cost of the health care bill--in this case the graph says it all. [go ahead click on the link--its free!]But for those that want to see everything spelled out Ezra writes: "the bill's spending is equivalent to about 4 percent of what we'll

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00989098653955627380noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27084814.post-32588864436034515162010-03-21T21:29:00.000-07:002010-03-21T21:44:54.703-07:00

Congratulations to America--Health care (insurance) reform passes. (again)219 to 212...the Democrats made it happen. This will improve the life of millions of Americans, and I'm very proud that they did. (That is not to say this is a perfect bill...far from it--I would have much prefered if it had a public option and/or not included a mandate. I think the mandate could still bite the Dems on

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00989098653955627380noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27084814.post-21407815172886172362010-03-10T14:47:00.000-08:002010-03-10T15:46:34.803-08:00

I am sometimes fascinated by the markets, and what makes them tick, or in this case yawn.This morning I noticed that SPWRA was up about 65 cents (~3%) on low volume. SPWRA can trade up/down 10% in a day so this was not a big move, but at least it was up! There was a news item--so I clicked on it and up pops a major news story:SunPower wins a 200MW order for PV panels from Southern California

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00989098653955627380noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27084814.post-38091870999005414232010-03-06T12:00:00.000-08:002010-03-06T13:38:15.546-08:00

I’ve noticed a fantastic increase in the number of postings in recent months by people that claim to be “skeptics” of climate change. Perhaps they were always there and I just didn’t run across their posts, but I’d wager that that others have noticed an increase also.Is it a coincidence that this increase comes in the lead up to the US Senate considering a major piece of legislation (cap and

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00989098653955627380noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27084814.post-59782690185879323202010-02-18T12:29:00.000-08:002010-02-18T13:59:13.780-08:00

Solar stocks have had a rough month. Some of the biggest names that I follow have sold off 20-30%, despite the fact that year over year comparisons should be turning quite positive for the group in Q1-Q2 2010.The industry is likely to grow by 30% (in GW installed, if not $) this year to reach ~8GW globally (+/- 0.5GW) so the selloff seems rather overdone. And I blame this at least in part on the

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00989098653955627380noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27084814.post-68276137963632856362010-01-25T00:35:00.000-08:002010-01-25T01:02:37.717-08:00

Several sources now report that Germany plans to decrease the (feed-in-tariff) FIT by ~15% starting April 1 for smaller installations (unless you also consume the electricity you produce in which case you get a 5 eurocent/kwh kicker which could put you roughly back to the current FIT) and the same -15% on July 1 for larger commercial installations. Also utility scale/farm field installations will

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00989098653955627380noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27084814.post-64043668079121226152010-01-15T12:41:00.000-08:002010-01-15T14:07:01.863-08:00

The strongest argument for German style feed-in-tariffs (FIT) is that they offer a financial incentive AND price certainty to investors--something solar market participants are not feeling right now. Yes I know the price-certainty is supposed to be for the buyers of solar panels not the manufacturers...yet you can't have one without the other.A feed-in-tariff is a fixed price payment for energy

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00989098653955627380noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27084814.post-67477863773839905712010-01-13T13:51:00.000-08:002010-01-13T14:09:35.838-08:00

Poor Haiti. The island must be cursed. Yet it is heartbreaking to see and hear about the latest tragedy. Such complete devastation...As soon as I heard that a 7.0 earthquake hit Haiti, I knew that thousands would die...perhaps tens of thousands.At least technology is enabling faster response. Upon hearing that I could send a text message to donate to the Red Cross relief effort I did so

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00989098653955627380noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27084814.post-59355038609004587822009-12-17T13:20:00.000-08:002009-12-18T14:19:42.247-08:00

EJ Dionne had a column in the Washington Post yesterday that annoyed me. So I sent him a reply:Considering how much work it is to pass health care reform (the country has spent more than half the year on it) and how much it will cost us to do. I think progressives have every right to point out what a steaming pile of crap (to the average american...you know the 85+% of america that already has

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00989098653955627380noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27084814.post-13749811504366617582009-12-16T23:54:00.000-08:002009-12-18T00:47:28.195-08:00

I'm disgusted by the legislative process. How exactly does the senate get to the eve of passing a health reform bill that takes better care of the insurance companies than it does the american people?Yes the bill will cover more americans, but only because it forces all those americans to buy the crappy insurance that we already can't afford! We need some way to bring costs down. Public option,

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00989098653955627380noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27084814.post-57217581925940615132009-11-30T14:38:00.000-08:002009-11-30T15:27:42.570-08:00

I just completed a major goal of the year: to have a prototype 3D Solar panel tested by an independent testing laboratory. As long time readers know, the patent pending 3D solar panel design incorporates reflectors and simple geometry to generate more power per cell. I selected TUV-PTL in Tempe AZ to perform the prototype testing--they were very responsive and helpful as this was my first time

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00989098653955627380noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27084814.post-49233315250438367152009-11-29T23:01:00.000-08:002009-11-29T23:19:22.441-08:00

I am afraid President Obama is about to make the first major mistake of his administration by escalating the war in Afghanistan. To begin with, the has no "national" interest in afghanistan other than to disrupt what remains of al queda (and possibly decapitate the "leadership" of the Taliban that granted al-queada sanctuary there.) I hope that I am wrong, but adding 30,000+ more troops will

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00989098653955627380noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27084814.post-66899685475580743562009-11-23T12:56:00.001-08:002009-11-23T13:24:14.510-08:00

I was a little hard on the content of the CEO panels at the recent solar industry conference in CA. But looking back, I believe that this keynote address by Robert Kennedy Jr., to the Solar Power International conference in late October, was pitch perfect.In about 40 minutes, Kennedy really captures the best arguments for supporting widespread renewables. Rather than reading my synopsis, go

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00989098653955627380noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27084814.post-30938142813235926612009-11-21T14:22:00.000-08:002009-11-21T15:40:11.773-08:00

In the last week or so I learned about a fascinating modern version of a millennia old technology.I'm talking about thermal mass...this is a very popular technology among the passive solar crowd--stretching back to the dawn of civilization--and it involves building your home (or castle) with "thick" walls that absorb heat during the heat of the day (cooling the home) and release that heat during

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00989098653955627380noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27084814.post-35316390580748145932009-11-20T10:06:00.000-08:002009-11-20T12:25:13.287-08:00

The City of Naperville, IL has put together a forward leaning Renewable Energy Program.The program allows residents and business to voluntarily purchase/support green energy via a $5 charge on their monthly electric bills. You can buy extra 200kwh blocks for additional $5/mth. Over 9% of eligible residents (~50k eligible) have signed on, including a couple dozen individually listed businesses.The

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00989098653955627380noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27084814.post-7636438716359126962009-11-15T13:49:00.000-08:002009-11-15T14:04:54.636-08:00

For anyone interested in cutting edge Optics with a capital "O" I highly recommend the weekly colloquia at the University of Arizona, which is where I studied optics. A few weeks back I remember wishing that they would video tape their colloquia, because they are extremely informative and interesting ~1 hour long talks by THE experts of optics on their various subjects of expertise. Well I'm

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00989098653955627380noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27084814.post-53192102905044732272009-11-13T13:27:00.000-08:002009-11-13T14:27:27.889-08:00

Here is some great news if you are considering going solar (or small wind) in Illinois in the next ~6 months.The Illinois state rebate granting authority--DCEO has a program that provides a rebate of 30% of the installed cost of solar (or small wind). In prior years the maximum rebate was capped at $10,000 per application, but this year its been expanded up to a total of $50,000 per application.

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00989098653955627380noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27084814.post-44444912703396052882009-11-01T12:37:00.000-08:002009-11-01T14:19:04.435-08:00

I attended Solar Power 2009 Conference in Anneheim, CA last week. It was a hugh show (for solar) over 23,000 attendees, up nearly 3x in 3 years. While the attendence numbers generated some buzz, the overwhelming sentiment was relief that the worst of the financial crisis is over, and assuming that the 3rd quarter is indicative, the solar industry is back on its feet and moving forward

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00989098653955627380noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27084814.post-30658208536086878012009-10-15T09:07:00.000-07:002009-10-15T09:36:57.884-07:00

I thought today (Blog Action Day 2009) would be a good day to post a couple snapshots of my prototype solar panel. Getting these made was my "summer project", which morphed into the full-on launching of my new company 3D Solar Inc. For anyone new to the site, these patent pending panels incorporate a mirror with each row of solar cells forming a V-shape pair. This is easiest to see in

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00989098653955627380noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27084814.post-47112274235995026162009-10-07T10:06:00.000-07:002009-10-07T10:59:33.328-07:00

So last night the news was that the guys that developed the technology for digital photography and one who developed high(er) purity fiber optics used in communications share this year's Nobel Prize in Physics. This combination of technologies has led to a revolution in digital imaging and communications over the past couple decades. It seems fitting that one company, now at the center of the

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00989098653955627380noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27084814.post-698724119177659942009-10-05T09:38:00.000-07:002009-10-05T14:48:07.713-07:00

I just finished reading The Green Collar Economy by Van Jones. It is "motivating" "inspiring" "a call to action" and clearly demonstrates how the twin problems environmental and economic bankruptcy need to be solved together. This IS the guidebook for our generation.I heard Van Jones give a 15 minute speech at a solar conference a couple years back and I was impressed. Having just read his book I

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00989098653955627380noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27084814.post-30458314839302251062009-10-03T11:54:00.000-07:002009-10-03T12:48:13.553-07:00

I went to see Capitalism: A Love Story yesterday, and I loved it. It is a classic expose of how the American political system has been corrupted by unbridled greed. America's debt crisis has been decades in the making--and Moore brilliantly traces several threads that illustrate how the American Dream of the 50s has transformed into our current American Nightmare. Don't get thrown off by

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00989098653955627380noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27084814.post-65169933177311418782009-10-01T12:06:00.000-07:002009-10-01T13:27:06.261-07:00

I was surfing some energy related blogs yesterday when I ran across a link to David MacKay's web-book Sustainable Energy--without the hot air. While long in terms of pages, it is quite skimmable and packed with lots of easy to read tables and figures.David MacKay does an excellent job of relating the enormity/difficulty of decarbonizing our energy system TO EACH INDIVIDUAL PERSON. His audience is

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00989098653955627380noreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27084814.post-32499545481043867342009-09-14T13:48:00.000-07:002009-09-14T14:07:21.082-07:00

It may be silly, but I feel ripped off because the 1.5TB hard drive that I just bought only has 1.36TB of storage space. Never mind that even 1.36TB is a massive amount of storage space to get for ~$150...It just seems wrong that I get nearly 10% less than I was led to believe I'd get. Like buying a 10ft tape measure that only goes to 9ft...how does this happen? Yeah, yeah, I know there is some

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00989098653955627380noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27084814.post-551728535312107052009-08-12T13:49:00.000-07:002009-08-12T15:13:42.622-07:00

Sorry that I have not been posting regularly the last couple months. I've been busier that usual since my decision to set up a company called 3D Solar, Inc. to help me commercialize my "V-panel" invention. The good news is that the venture looks like it is coming together nicely. I expect the current level of funding will be sufficient to accomplish the major goals, primarily related to

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00989098653955627380noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27084814.post-57463724283778231472009-05-18T12:11:00.000-07:002009-05-18T12:23:26.374-07:00

I attended the ASES conference in Buffalo, NY last week. The tone was much less exuberant than last year’s conference in San Diego when oil prices were still rising ~$1/day. A lot has improved for the solar industry over the last year—in terms of actual legislation passed, the pace of solar installations in states like California, and the tone of the new administration which has put renewable

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00989098653955627380noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27084814.post-41362094816591326362009-04-22T12:10:00.000-07:002009-04-22T14:31:11.823-07:00

A number of solar companies will report results over the next couple weeks. Expectations are very low--indeed there has been a steady and consistent drumbeat of negatives revisions and forecasts from "top" wall street analysts. This could be a terrible quarter...typically Q1 is weak because it is winter, then you add in the credit crunch, the global recession, and an inventory adjustment as

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00989098653955627380noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27084814.post-53863455637804704602009-03-27T15:22:00.000-07:002009-03-27T15:38:25.888-07:00

I made a series of posts 3-4 months ago about some incredible bargains in solar stocks. At that time we were in the midst of the 2008 global market crash. The market was in transition from supply constrained (due to the end of a multi-year shortage of silicon) to demand constrained. Basically the lousy economy, falling home prices (and credit crisis) has made it hard to finance relatively

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00989098653955627380noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27084814.post-57391272061380138132009-03-18T19:35:00.000-07:002009-03-18T19:40:03.509-07:00

In recent years we have seen a growing interest on the part of companies and individuals in using solar power in the US. The interest has translated into installations in the states that offer the best incentives. Just in the last 18 months we have begun to see forward leaning utilities bid/announce projects in the hundreds of megawatts (i.e. utility scale solar). It is exciting to see some

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00989098653955627380noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27084814.post-85079990519259024912009-03-15T10:02:00.000-07:002009-03-15T11:08:27.984-07:00

From the annals of you can't make this shit up:"Insurance giant AIG to pay $165 million in bonuses"Yes, this the same AIG that has received $170-180 BILLION in taxpayer funded bailouts over the past 7 months.OUTRAGEOUS!^NthFrom the articleGeithner termed the current bonus structure unacceptable in view of the billions of dollars of taxpayer support the company is receiving, this official said.In

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00989098653955627380noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27084814.post-19635696505293306002009-03-05T12:45:00.000-08:002009-03-05T13:24:18.932-08:00

Interesting...CNBC is talking the market down...not that the market needs a lot of help. Still is it normal for CNBC commentators to recommend investors short equities including the most beaten up names?I thought investors were supposed to look for opportunties to buy quality names, with good management, and proven earnings potential at a low price. Can prices go lower? of course that is always a

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00989098653955627380noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27084814.post-45402784031112259012009-02-22T11:37:00.000-08:002009-02-22T14:24:53.829-08:00

The solar industry is certainly in flux. Major economic winds are reshaping the industry, which has largely developed in the cocoon of government incentives. A transition was inevitable for an industry growing almost 40% per year to reach ~4GW in 2008--as recently as 2001 total industrial production was under 400MW. But the global financial crisis and the ensuing world-wide recession has acted

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00989098653955627380noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27084814.post-24637993552848410052009-02-08T13:16:00.000-08:002009-02-08T14:46:08.215-08:00

I have watched the stimulus bill "discussion" with astonishment. Setting aside the complete hypocrisy of Republicans who supported Bush's $1.3T tax cuts (primarily for the wealthy) AND the $1T+ war in Iraq, arguing that $800B to jump start the US economy is "irresponsible"...Don't the Republicans know or talk to a single economist? Virtually every economist I've seen, read or heard says that

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00989098653955627380noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27084814.post-86317050508726611342009-01-20T11:47:00.000-08:002009-01-20T12:34:31.816-08:00

Congratulation Mr. President Obama (a.k.a. 44!).What a wonderful event to witness, and it is certainly time for a change. Obama gave an excellent inaugural address that expressed a marked shift in tone, and direction. I was encouraged that there was no "scaling back" of what we can do as a nation. Some personal highlights:"Now, there are some who question the scale of our ambitions - who suggest

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00989098653955627380noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27084814.post-5750991789577585362009-01-06T11:11:00.000-08:002009-01-06T11:12:01.855-08:00

Happy 2009!, and good riddance to 2008.Yes, I had a miserable investment year, my small consolation is that I didn't have that much money to start with, so lots of people lost a whole lot more--cold comfort perhaps. Reminds me of the Billy Joel lyric "their sharing a drink they call loneliness...but its better than drinking alone."I am more determined than ever to get something going this year

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00989098653955627380noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27084814.post-70492374561272331372008-11-20T07:52:00.000-08:002008-11-20T09:50:13.223-08:00

I pulled up some stock charts and was amazed to see that many solar companies are down 50%-80% in the last MONTH!As Sylvester the cat used to say "This is Ridiculous!"So let me start (some would say continue) to pound the table. Now is a good time to buy, buy, buy! In a year or two you'll wish you had. These are growing, profitable businesses that are getting clobbered in the credit market

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00989098653955627380noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27084814.post-9510906950464085042008-11-13T09:51:00.000-08:002008-11-13T10:25:47.160-08:00

This is apparently what a panic looks like in the solar markets!The last two month chart for of SunTech (orange), First Solar (red), WFR (blue), and SunPower (tan).It should be noted that these stocks are (or at least were in Q3'08) growing revenues and earnings by 30-50%+ a year. The stocks are between 65-85% below 52 week highs.

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00989098653955627380noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27084814.post-79806495505332860002008-11-05T09:12:00.000-08:002008-11-05T10:14:22.098-08:00

I am so proud of Barack Obama! He called on all of us to choose hope over fear. He campaigned consistently on the message of change AND unity. And WE listened and voted in record numbers for him! My faith in America has been renewed. It won't be easy, but President-elect Barack Obama has shown us how WE THE PEOPLE--as one nation, inspite of our many historic divisions--can come together and

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00989098653955627380noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27084814.post-13993643205017978412008-11-01T10:49:00.000-07:002008-11-01T10:56:29.487-07:00

I thought this was a clever video: Make History!It made me smile.Before the clip was even over, I wrote Make History on my calendar...We can make history, but it will take all of us getting our butts to the polls. DON'T FORGET TO VOTE NOV 4.

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00989098653955627380noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27084814.post-3627476264155106322008-10-26T09:25:00.000-07:002008-10-26T10:12:44.641-07:00

Since when did the tax rates of the late 1990s (for the wealthiest 1% of taxpayers) become equivalent to socialism? This interview is surreal. So cutting middle class taxes by 2-5%, while raising taxes on the wealthiest 1%, back to the level of the late 1990s (such austerity!) is somehow Marxist? Huh?Sigh! I suppose there is a reason the blog-o-sphere calls the extreme right "wingnuts".Nobody

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00989098653955627380noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27084814.post-46727347483174069572008-10-24T11:43:00.000-07:002008-10-24T12:19:27.338-07:00

Everything to do with global markets looks awful right now.We are stuck in a negative feedback loop, everything that happens leads to more selling (or so it seems). Housing declines lead to bank loses which lead to bank layoffs which leads to recession fears which leads to tighter credit which leads to corporate lay-offs which leads to deeper recession fears which leads to commodity market

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00989098653955627380noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27084814.post-14798234658329838302008-10-11T23:14:00.000-07:002008-10-11T23:43:22.198-07:00

Sorry, I was just listening to George Soros on "The Journal" and it reminded me of a post of mine from mid-March 2008 entitled "Wall Street's Katrina Moment".You know what? I was right on the money...and six+ months ahead of the administration. Who would have guessed that the Bush administration's Katrina response was really quite swift?Why does it take the biggest financial cock-up in 75 years

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00989098653955627380noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27084814.post-56692773239768919752008-10-11T15:31:00.000-07:002008-10-11T15:59:19.057-07:00

I had a chance to test out my 1/2 size demonstration panel today--it now has a cover and sides. On a 25C ambient sunny October afternoon, I measured a temperature of 70C inside my panel versus 50C on the standard panel. The good news is that my panel generated 26.3W versus 20.5W on the standard panel. 28.3% more power...And my panel had an extra 3/8 inch polycarb sheet over the cells absorbing

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00989098653955627380noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27084814.post-48243890902157103702008-10-10T08:59:00.000-07:002008-10-10T09:39:10.936-07:00

I'm growing very concerned about the damage this "silly" credit crisis may be doing to our real economy, especially the renewable sector. Global markets are in sustained free fall. There is no person/company/country or combination (of appropriate stature/independence/distance from the financial mess) that is coming forward and saying that this selling panic is insane. Is every company on this

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00989098653955627380noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27084814.post-30340255634091613662008-10-09T19:51:00.000-07:002008-10-09T19:55:50.948-07:00

Dow dropped ~400 pts in the last hour of trading, down 7%+ on the day. Asian markets opened down 8%-10%.This is getting serious!Everyone says this is not the time to panic, and I'm not the panic-ing type...but yeeooow!This is really ugly.

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00989098653955627380noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27084814.post-69849367312259132782008-10-08T22:13:00.000-07:002008-10-08T22:26:19.288-07:00

I just have to point out that MEMC Electronics(WFR) is trading at an absurdly low price. At ~$23/share it trades at a P/E of ~8. It also has $6/sh in cash and virtually zero debt. So the real P/E is closer to 6.The knocks are well know...the economy is in the dumps which means earnings probably won't reach the $4.87/share that is estimated for next year. WFR makes high grade silicon for

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00989098653955627380noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27084814.post-21629648237121121672008-10-04T19:25:00.000-07:002008-10-04T21:06:18.883-07:00

The newly enacted Federal Solar Tax Credit makes a real difference.In a state like California which has lots of sun, high electric rates, and provides its own solar incentives the elimination of the cap will really boost solar installations.Assuming an $8/W installed price for solar panels, a 3.5kW installation of solar panels (enough to supply nearly 600 kwh/mth) would cost $28,000 total. But

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00989098653955627380noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27084814.post-64867559477568789432008-10-03T19:15:00.000-07:002008-10-03T20:52:09.919-07:00

So the $700 billion Wall Street Bailout passed... A steaming pile of crap that will enrich to greedy bankers that got us into deep doo-doo.At least we got some solar goodies bundled into it: 1) 8 year extension to the 30% solar tax credit that was set to expire this year2) I'm told the $2,000 cap goes away for homeowners (I couldn't find that part myself)3) alternative minimum tax payer can now

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00989098653955627380noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27084814.post-16124859340920699522008-09-29T13:56:00.000-07:002008-09-29T15:02:33.190-07:00

Big fail on the Paulson Wall Street bailout. Lots of finger pointing going on. I am oddly relieved.Yeah Wall Street is in full flame-out...and my portfolio (small as it is in the scheme of things) took a massive hit...most if not all of my stocks are Nasdaq type stocks.This is what happens when the country has lost ALL TRUST in our president and financial leadership and congress in general. My

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00989098653955627380noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27084814.post-90899054940551432332008-09-24T14:06:00.000-07:002008-09-24T14:14:21.527-07:00

I feel conflicted. Just a week ago I was calling out for a massive bailout of the mortgage lending system. Within hours that was exactly what Treasury Secretary Paulson was calling for. And we needed to do it RIGHT AWAY! or our capital markets would collapse.In a matter of days we went from “the fundamentals of our economy are sound” to we are facing the biggest crisis since the Great Depression.

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00989098653955627380noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27084814.post-79012704219683472692008-09-21T18:57:00.000-07:002008-09-21T20:20:56.227-07:00

Lord Acton's quote: "Power tends to corrupt; absolute power corrupts absolutely" seems timely and appropriate.At this point I agree with Krugman: no deal!I realize this is only a draft plan [or is it a dream?] and will (certainly??) be revised by congress. But the most important details are missing (how they plan to take all this bad debt off the banks books...i.e. how is it priced) and more

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00989098653955627380noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27084814.post-30888962486932588552008-09-19T11:35:00.000-07:002008-09-19T12:18:43.494-07:00

So...the government has finally decided to set up a fund to buy up the bad debt. Hurrah for common sense.There are lots of questions but at least we are now looking at the problem which is the crack-up in the housing market and the related mortgage-backed-securities (MBS) gone bad. I think this is what is driving the rally: that Paulson, the Fed, and Congress are now focused on the actual

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00989098653955627380noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27084814.post-39198598229337809412008-09-17T09:13:00.000-07:002008-09-17T10:31:53.776-07:00

This week/month/year the financial dominos are falling. Banks are failing, investment banks are failing, insurance companies are failing, quasi-government agencies are failing. Secretary Paulson is running around trying to re-inforce the house of cards as hurricane force winds gust through. Bailouts left and right. Its tragic for those whose livelihoods are being destroyed. Its shocking for

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00989098653955627380noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27084814.post-90071771850522662332008-09-08T09:34:00.000-07:002008-09-08T10:15:10.514-07:00

This administration has had an ideological axe to grind against Fannie and Freddie from day one. They particularly didn't like the fact that they performed well as quasi-government entities for decades. But they are essential to the operation of the US home mortgage market (especially in times of crisis) and have been since they were created. The governments' steps to takeover Fannie Mae and

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00989098653955627380noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27084814.post-17418099801046944382008-09-05T11:46:00.000-07:002008-09-05T11:51:40.611-07:00

One of the best arguments in favor of Obama is contained in this Tax Policy comparison graphic.This is a year when voting your own economic interest will benefit ~98 out of 100 of your fellow Americans.

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00989098653955627380noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27084814.post-964415254612242192008-09-04T20:33:00.000-07:002008-09-04T20:50:36.862-07:00

Holy Shit. Did I just watch John McCain for a full hour waiting for a kernel of substance?They even brought back the green-screen! Woot! Was that for the comedians?There was no substance. None! Poor Johnny (actually the entire republican convention) seems to think energy=oil=economy. While there are linkages between energy and the economy they are not the same. Did he spend all the time he

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00989098653955627380noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27084814.post-50038010932151317522008-09-04T14:27:00.000-07:002008-09-04T14:28:46.302-07:00

After watching the inspiring and uplifting Democratic convention in Denver last week, I determined to watch the John S. McSame convention in Minnesota this week. It’s not over yet, McCain still needs to do his stick, but baring a “St. Paul on the road to Damascus” conversion, I think we have a clear measure of the state of the republican base. Four more years of unapologetic subservience to

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00989098653955627380noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27084814.post-89591743307607388212008-08-19T09:56:00.000-07:002008-08-19T10:15:32.781-07:00

Late last year my parents had an energy expert come out and perform a home energy audit. He was able to recommend some additional steps (additional to our normal winter preparations). Without even having had an audit can you guess what his #1 idea was? Add insulation to the attic! Who could have guessed? Still knowing how much and what kind did help us out. The guy also found some big air gaps

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00989098653955627380noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27084814.post-77152991330205885272008-07-02T17:11:00.000-07:002008-07-02T17:17:18.050-07:00

Okay enough with the teases! Here it is: A photovoltaic PV array owner can control the power output of the array, allowing the array owner to maximize power production when they want to. The primary determinate of how much power a solar PV panel generates is how much sun it receives. But there is a secondary determinate, namely the operating temperature of the panel.

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00989098653955627380noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27084814.post-55503308115502823252008-06-26T09:51:00.000-07:002008-06-26T09:57:51.499-07:00

Here is an example of how a PV array owner might use the ability to control the output.Let’s set up two arrays side by side; the second one has my control technology, and the first one doesn’t. Otherwise the two arrays are identical. The control technology allows a range of power outputs for any given light level, for comparison purposes, we’ll assume the default operating setting is in the

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00989098653955627380noreply@blogger.com0